Attitudes Toward COVID-19 Vaccines Among Pregnant and Recently Pregnant Individuals.

Importance: Pregnant people and infants are at high risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Understanding changes in attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccines among pregnant and recently pregnant people is important for public health messaging. Objective: To assess attitudinal trends regarding COVID-19 vaccines by (1) vaccination status and (2) race, ethnicity, and language among samples of pregnant and recently pregnant Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) members from 2021 to 2023. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional surveye study included pregnant or recently pregnant members of the VSD, a collaboration of 13 health care systems and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Unvaccinated, non-Hispanic Black, and Spanish-speaking members were oversampled. Wave 1 took place from October 2021 to February 2022, and wave 2 took place from November 2022 to February 2023. Data were analyzed from May 2022 to September 2023. Exposures: Self-reported or electronic health record (EHR)-derived race, ethnicity, and preferred language. Main Outcomes and Measures: Self-reported vaccination status and attitudes toward monovalent (wave 1) or bivalent Omicron booster (wave 2) COVID-19 vaccines. Sample- and response-weighted analyses assessed attitudes by vaccination status and 3 race, ethnicity, and language groupings of interest. Results: There were 1227 respondents; all identified as female, the mean (SD) age was 31.7 (5.6) years, 356 (29.0%) identified as Black race, 555 (45.2%) identified as Hispanic ethnicity, and 445 (36.3%) preferred the Spanish language. Response rates were 43.5% for wave 1 (652 of 1500 individuals sampled) and 39.5% for wave 2 (575 of 1456 individuals sampled). Respondents were more likely than nonrespondents to be White, non-Hispanic, and vaccinated per EHR. Overall, 76.8% (95% CI, 71.5%-82.2%) reported 1 or more COVID-19 vaccinations; Spanish-speaking Hispanic respondents had the highest weighted proportion of respondents with 1 or more vaccination. Weighted estimates of somewhat or strongly agreeing that COVID-19 vaccines are safe decreased from wave 1 to 2 for respondents who reported 1 or more vaccinations (76% vs 50%; χ21 = 7.8; P < .001), non-Hispanic White respondents (72% vs 43%; χ21 = 5.4; P = .02), and Spanish-speaking Hispanic respondents (76% vs 53%; χ21 = 22.8; P = .002). Conclusions and Relevance: Decreasing confidence in COVID-19 vaccine safety in a large, diverse pregnant and recently pregnant insured population is a public health concern.

Influenza vaccination accuracy among adults: Self-report compared with electronic health record data.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity of electronic health record (EHR)-based influenza vaccination data among adults in a multistate network. METHODS: Following the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 influenza seasons, surveys were conducted among a random sample of adults who did or did not appear influenza-vaccinated (per EHR data) during the influenza season. Participants were asked to report their influenza vaccination status; self-report was treated as the criterion standard. Results were combined across survey years. RESULTS: Survey response rate was 44.7% (777 of 1740) for the 2018-2019 influenza season and 40.5% (505 of 1246) for the 2019-2020 influenza season. The sensitivity of EHR-based influenza vaccination data was 75.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 68.1, 81.1), specificity 98.4% (95% CI 92.9, 99.9), and negative predictive value 73.9% (95% CI 68.0, 79.3). CONCLUSIONS: In a multistate research network across two recent influenza seasons, there was moderate concordance between EHR-based vaccination data and self-report.

Racial and ethnic disparities in influenza vaccination coverage among pregnant women in the United States: The contribution of vaccine-related attitudes.

OBJECTIVE: Racial and ethnic disparities in influenza vaccination coverage among pregnant women in the United States have been documented. This study assessed the contribution of vaccine-related attitudes to coverage disparities. METHODS: Surveys were conducted following the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 influenza seasons in a US research network. Using electronic health record data to identify pregnant women, random samples were selected for surveying; non-Hispanic Black women and influenza-unvaccinated women were oversampled. Regression-based decomposition analyses were used to assess the contribution of vaccine-related attitudes to racial and ethnic differences in influenza vaccination. Data were combined across survey years, and analyses were weighted and accounted for survey design. RESULTS: Survey response rate was 41.2% (721 of 1748) for 2019-2020 and 39.3% (706 of 1798) for 2020-2021. Self-reported influenza vaccination was higher among non-Hispanic White respondents (79.4% coverage, 95% CI 73.1%-85.7%) than Hispanic (66.2% coverage, 95% CI 52.5%-79.9%) and non-Hispanic Black (55.8% coverage, 95% CI 50.2%-61.4%) respondents. For all racial and ethnic groups, a high proportion (generally >80%) reported being seen for care, recommended for influenza vaccination, and offered vaccination. In decomposition analyses, vaccine-related attitudes (e.g., worry about vaccination causing influenza; concern about vaccine safety and effectiveness) explained a statistically significant portion of the observed racial and ethnic disparities in vaccination. Maternal age, education, and health status were not significant contributors after controlling for vaccine-related attitudes. CONCLUSIONS: In a setting with relatively high influenza vaccination coverage among pregnant women, racial and ethnic disparities in coverage were identified. Vaccine-related attitudes were associated with the disparities observed.

Influenza Vaccination Among Pregnant Women: Self-report Compared With Vaccination Data From Electronic Health Records, 2018-2020 Influenza Seasons.

OBJECTIVES: Having accurate influenza vaccination coverage estimates can guide public health activities. The objectives of this study were to (1) validate the accuracy of electronic health record (EHR)-based influenza vaccination data among pregnant women compared with survey self-report and (2) assess whether survey respondents differed from survey nonrespondents by demographic characteristics and EHR-based vaccination status. METHODS: This study was conducted in the Vaccine Safety Datalink, a network of 8 large medical care organizations in the United States. Using EHR data, we identified all women pregnant during the 2018-2019 or 2019-2020 influenza seasons. Surveys were conducted among samples of women who did and did not appear vaccinated for influenza according to EHR data. Separate surveys were conducted after each influenza season, and respondents reported their influenza vaccination status. Analyses accounted for the stratified design, sampling probability, and response probability. RESULTS: The survey response rate was 50.5% (630 of 1247) for 2018-2019 and 41.2% (721 of 1748) for 2019-2020. In multivariable analyses combining both survey years, non-Hispanic Black pregnant women had 3.80 (95% CI, 2.13-6.74) times the adjusted odds of survey nonresponse; odds of nonresponse were also higher for Hispanic pregnant women and women who had not received (per EHR data) influenza vaccine during current or prior influenza seasons. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of EHR documentation of influenza vaccination compared with self-report were ≥92% for both survey years combined. The negative predictive value of EHR-based influenza vaccine status was 80.5% (95% CI, 76.7%-84.0%). CONCLUSIONS: EHR-based influenza vaccination data among pregnant women were generally concordant with self-report. New data sources and novel approaches to mitigating nonresponse bias may be needed to enhance influenza vaccination surveillance efforts.

Association Between Aluminum Exposure From Vaccines Before Age 24 Months and Persistent Asthma at Age 24 to 59 Months.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between cumulative aluminum exposure from vaccines before age 24 months and persistent asthma at age 24 to 59 months. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD). Vaccination histories were used to calculate cumulative vaccine-associated aluminum in milligrams (mg). The persistent asthma definition required one inpatient or 2 outpatient asthma encounters, and ≥2 long-term asthma control medication dispenses. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the association between aluminum exposure and asthma incidence, stratified by eczema presence/absence. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) per 1 mg increase in aluminum exposure were calculated, adjusted for birth month/year, sex, race/ethnicity, VSD site, prematurity, medical complexity, food allergy, severe bronchiolitis, and health care utilization. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 326,991 children, among whom 14,337 (4.4%) had eczema. For children with and without eczema, the mean (standard deviation [SD]) vaccine-associated aluminum exposure was 4.07 mg (SD 0.60) and 3.98 mg (SD 0.72), respectively. Among children with and without eczema, 6.0% and 2.1%, respectively, developed persistent asthma. Among children with eczema, vaccine-associated aluminum was positively associated with persistent asthma (aHR 1.26 per 1 mg increase in aluminum, 95% CI 1.07, 1.49); a positive association was also detected among children without eczema (aHR 1.19, 95% CI 1.14, 1.25). CONCLUSION: In a large observational study, a positive association was found between vaccine-related aluminum exposure and persistent asthma. While recognizing the small effect sizes identified and the potential for residual confounding, additional investigation of this hypothesis appears warranted.

Early Peanut Introduction in Primary Care: Evaluation of a Multicomponent Intervention.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a multicomponent intervention focused on early peanut introduction was associated with a lower peanut allergy incidence in young children. METHODS: The study cohort comprised all children born January 1, 2013 through December 31, 2018 receiving care at a large health care organization. Intervention activities occurred over 16 months and included provider educational programs, electronic health record tools, and new patient instructions. We used an interrupted time series design to assess whether peanut allergy incidence differed across 3 time periods (preintervention, interim, postintervention) among high- and low-risk children. The primary outcome was incident peanut allergy by age 24 months, defined as peanut allergy in the allergy field or active problem list plus a positive supportive test. Severe eczema and/or egg allergy presence defined high-risk. Because the study was conducted as part of routine care, it was not feasible to measure what counseling clinicians provided, or how and when parents fed their children peanut-containing foods. RESULTS: In a cohort of 22,571 children, the percent with peanut allergy by age 24 months was 17.3% (116 of 671) among high-risk and 0.8% (181 of 21,900) among low-risk children. In multivariate analyses, the adjusted peanut allergy rate per 100 person-years was not significantly different across study periods among high-risk (9.6 preintervention, 11.7 interim, and 9.9 postintervention, P = .70) or low-risk (0.5 preintervention, 0.7 interim, and 0.5 postintervention, P = .17) children. CONCLUSIONS: In a community-based setting, the incidence of peanut allergy did not decline following a multicomponent intervention focused on early peanut introduction.

Temporal Trends in Undervaccination: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Monitoring the trends in undervaccination, including that because of parental vaccine refusal or delay, can inform public health responses directed at improving vaccine confidence and vaccination coverage. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Vaccine Safety Datalink. The cohort included all children born in 2004-2017 with ≥3 well-child visits between ages 2 and 23 months. Using electronic health record-based vaccination data, the average days undervaccinated was calculated for each child. Undervaccination patterns were assessed through age 23 months. Temporal trends were inspected for inflection points and were analyzed using linear regression. Nested within the cohort study, a survey was conducted to compare parent reports of vaccine refusal or delay with observed vaccination patterns. Data were analyzed in 2020. RESULTS: The study cohort consisted of 808,170 children. The percentage of children with average days undervaccinated=0 (fully vaccinated, no delays) rose from a nadir of 47.1% for the birth year 2008 to 68.4% for the birth year 2017 (ptrend<0.001). The percentage with no vaccines rose from 0.35% for the birth year 2004 to 1.28% for the birth year 2017 (ptrend<0.001). Consistent vaccine limiting was observed in 2.04% for the birth year 2017. Omission of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine peaked at 4.76% in the birth year 2007 and declined thereafter (ptrend<0.001). On the parent survey (response rate 60.2%), a high proportion of parents of the most undervaccinated children reported refusing or delaying vaccines. CONCLUSIONS: In a 14-year cohort study, vaccination timeliness has improved. However, the small but increasing number of children who received no vaccines by age 23 months warrants additional attention.

Commitment to Change Statements and Actual Practice Change After a Continuing Medical Education Intervention.

INTRODUCTION: Continuing medical education (CME) interventions often evaluate participant commitment to change (CTC) clinical practice. Evidence linking CTC to actual practice change is limited. METHODS: In an intervention that combined live CME with changes to the electronic health record to promote judicious antibiotic use for children with urinary tract infections (UTIs), we evaluated CTC and subsequent prescribing behavior in Kaiser Permanente Colorado, an integrated health care system. CTC was assessed immediately after the session using closed-ended questions about session learning objectives and open-ended questions to elicit specific practice changes. Perceived barriers to implementing recommended changes were also assessed. RESULTS: Among 179 participants, 80 (45%) completed postsession evaluations and treated one or more child with a UTI in the subsequent 17 months (856 UTIs in total). In closed-ended responses about session learning objectives, 45 clinicians (56%) committed to changing practice for antibiotic choice and duration, whereas 37 (46%) committed to implementing new practice guidelines. When asked open-ended questions to identify specific practice changes, 32 (40%) committed to antibiotic choice change and 29 (36%) committed to treatment duration change. Participants who made specific CTC statements had greater improvement in antibiotic choice (relative rate ratio 1.56, 95% CI 1.16-2.09) and duration (relative rate ratio 1.59, 95% CI 1.05-2.41) than participants who did not make specific commitments. Few perceived barriers affected subsequent prescribing. DISCUSSION: Commitments to changing specific clinical behaviors were associated with sustained changes in prescribing for children with UTIs. Linking self-evaluations with clinical data in integrated health care systems is an important tool for CME evaluators.

Improving Antibiotic Prescribing for Pediatric Urinary Tract Infections in Outpatient Settings.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if a multicomponent intervention was associated with increased use of first-line antibiotics (cephalexin or sulfamethoxazole and trimethoprim) among children with uncomplicated urinary tract infections (UTIs) in outpatient settings. METHODS: The study was conducted at Kaiser Permanente Colorado, a large health care organization with ∼127 000 members <18 years of age. After conducting a gap analysis, an intervention was developed to target key drivers of antibiotic prescribing for pediatric UTIs. Intervention activities included development of new local clinical guidelines, a live case-based educational session, pre- and postsession e-mailed knowledge assessments, and a new UTI-specific order set within the electronic health record. Most activities were implemented on April 26, 2017. The study design was an interrupted time series comparing antibiotic prescribing for UTIs before versus after the implementation date. Infants <60 days old and children with complex urologic or neurologic conditions were excluded. RESULTS: During January 2014 to September 2018, 2142 incident outpatient UTIs were identified (1636 preintervention and 506 postintervention). Pyelonephritis was diagnosed for 7.6% of cases. Adjusted for clustering of UTIs within clinicians, the proportion of UTIs treated with first-line antibiotics increased from 43.4% preintervention to 62.4% postintervention (P < .0001). The use of cephalexin (first-line, narrow spectrum) increased from 28.9% preintervention to 53.0% postintervention (P < .0001). The use of cefixime (second-line, broad spectrum) decreased from 17.3% preintervention to 2.6% postintervention (P < .0001). Changes in prescribing practices persisted through the end of the study period. CONCLUSIONS: A multicomponent intervention with educational and process-improvement elements was associated with a sustained change in antibiotic prescribing for uncomplicated pediatric UTIs.

Estimating Childhood Obesity Prevalence in Communities Through Multi-institutional Data Sharing.

CONTEXT: Although local childhood obesity prevalence estimates would be valuable for planning and evaluating obesity prevention efforts in communities, these data are often unavailable. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective was to create a multi-institutional system for sharing electronic health record (EHR) data to produce childhood obesity prevalence estimates at the census tract level. A secondary objective was to adjust obesity prevalence estimates to population demographic characteristics. DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: The study was set in Denver County, Colorado. Six regional health care organizations shared EHR-derived data from 2014 to 2016 with the state health department for children and adolescents 2 to 17 years of age. The most recent height and weight measured during routine care were used to calculate body mass index (BMI); obesity was defined as BMI of 95th percentile or more for age and sex. Census tract location was determined using residence address. Race/ethnicity was imputed when missing, and obesity prevalence estimates were adjusted by sex, age group, and race/ethnicity. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Adjusted obesity prevalence estimates, overall, by demographic characteristics and by census tract. RESULTS: BMI measurements were available for 89 264 children and adolescents in Denver County, representing 73.9% of the population estimate from census data. Race/ethnicity was missing for 4.6%. The county-level adjusted childhood obesity prevalence estimate was 13.9% (95% confidence interval, 13.6-14.1). Adjusted obesity prevalence was higher among males, those 12 to 17 years of age, and those of Hispanic race/ethnicity. Adjusted obesity prevalence varied by census tract (range, 0.4%-24.7%). Twelve census tracts had an adjusted obesity prevalence of 20% or more, with several contiguous census tracts with higher childhood obesity occurring in western areas of the city. CONCLUSIONS: It was feasible to use a system of multi-institutional sharing of EHR data to produce local childhood obesity prevalence estimates. Such a system may provide useful information for communities when implementing obesity prevention programs.

Implementation of Recommendations for Long-Acting Contraception Among Women Aged 13 to 18 Years in Primary Care.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical specialty societies recommend long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) as first-line contraception for adolescent women. We evaluated whether a combined educational and process improvement intervention enhanced LARC placement in primary care within an integrated health care system. METHODS: The intervention included journal clubs, live continuing education, point-of-care guidelines, and new patient materials. We conducted a retrospective cohort study across 3 time periods: baseline (January 2013-September 2015), early implementation (October 2015-March 2016), and full implementation (April 2016-June 2017). The primary outcome was the proportion of LARCs placed by primary care clinicians among women aged 13 to 18 years compared with gynecology clinicians. RESULTS: Kaiser Foundation Health Plan of Colorado cared for approximately 20,000 women aged 13 to 18 years in each calendar quarter between 2013 and 2017. Overall, LARC placement increased from 7.0 per 1000 members per quarter at baseline to 13.0 per 1000 during the full intervention. Primary care clinicians placed 6.2% of all LARCs in 2013, increasing to 32.1% by 2017 (P < .001), including 45.5% of contraceptive implants. Clinicians who attended educational sessions were more likely to adopt LARCs than those who did not (17.9% vs 6.4% respectively, P = .009). Neither overall LARC placement rates (relative risk, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.7-5.6) nor contraceptive implant rates (relative risk, 3.0; 95% confidence interval, 0.9-9.8) increased significantly in clinicians who attended educational activities. CONCLUSIONS: This multimodal intervention was associated with increased LARC placement for adolescent women in primary care. The combination of education and process improvement is a promising strategy to promote clinician behavior change.

Drugs Contributing to Anticholinergic Burden and Risk of Fall or Fall-Related Injury among Older Adults with Mild Cognitive Impairment, Dementia and Multiple Chronic Conditions: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: It is not known whether drugs with different anticholinergic ratings contribute proportionately to overall anticholinergic score. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to assess the risk of falls or fall-related injuries as a function of the overall anticholinergic score resulting from drugs with different anticholinergic ratings among people with impaired cognition. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of adults aged ≥ 65 years with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia and two or more additional chronic conditions (N = 10,698) in an integrated delivery system. Electronic health record data, including pharmacy fills and diagnosis claims, were used to assess anticholinergic medication use, quantified using the anticholinergic cognitive burden (ACB) scale, falls and fall-related injuries. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 366 days, 63% of the cohort used one or more ACB drug; 2015 (18.8%) people experienced a fall or fall-related injury. Among patients with a daily ACB score of 5, the greatest increase in risk of falls or fall-related injuries was seen when level 2 and level 3 drugs were used in combination [hazard ratio (HR) 2.06; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51-2.83]. Multiple ACB level 1 drugs taken together also increased the hazard of a fall or fall-related injury (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.03-1.32). The risk of fall or fall-related injury as a function of exposure to ACB level 2 drugs (HR 1.56; 95% CI 1.16-2.10) was higher than that for ACB level 1 or 3 drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The same daily ACB score was associated with a different degree of risk, depending on the ACB ratings of the individual drugs comprising the score. Combinations of level 2 and level 3 drugs had the greatest risk of fall or fall-related injury relative to other individuals with the same daily ACB score. Low-potency anticholinergic drugs taken together modestly increased the hazard of a fall or fall-related injury.

Device Therapies Among Patients Receiving Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators in the Cardiovascular Research Network.

BACKGROUND: Primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) reduce mortality in selected patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction by delivering therapies (antitachycardia pacing or shocks) to terminate potentially lethal arrhythmias; inappropriate therapies also occur. We assessed device therapies among adults receiving primary prevention ICDs in 7 healthcare systems. METHODS AND RESULTS: We linked medical record data, adjudicated device therapies, and the National Cardiovascular Data Registry ICD Registry. Survival analysis evaluated therapy probability and predictors after ICD implant from 2006 to 2009, with attention to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Coverage With Evidence Development subgroups: left ventricular ejection fraction, 31% to 35%; nonischemic cardiomyopathy <9 months' duration; and New York Heart Association class IV heart failure with cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator. Among 2540 patients, 35% were <65 years old, 26% were women, and 59% were white. During 27 (median) months, 738 (29%) received ≥1 therapy. Three-year therapy risk was 36% (appropriate, 24%; inappropriate, 12%). Appropriate therapy was more common in men (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43-2.35). Inappropriate therapy was more common in patients with atrial fibrillation (adjusted HR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.68-2.87), but less common among patients ≥65 years old versus younger (adjusted HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.54-0.95) and in recent implants (eg, in 2009 versus 2006; adjusted HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46-0.95). In Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Coverage With Evidence Development analysis, inappropriate therapy was less common with cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator versus single chamber (adjusted HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-0.84); therapy risk did not otherwise differ for Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Coverage With Evidence Development subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: In this community cohort of primary prevention patients receiving ICD, therapy delivery varied across demographic and clinical characteristics, but did not differ meaningfully for Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Coverage With Evidence Development subgroups.

Medication Profiles of Patients with Cognitive Impairment and High Anticholinergic Burden.

BACKGROUND: Drugs with anticholinergic properties are considered potentially inappropriate in patients with cognitive impairment because harms-including delirium, falls, and fractures-may outweigh benefits. OBJECTIVE: To highlight opportunities to improve clinical decision making and care for patients with cognitive impairment and multiple chronic conditions, we identified distinct subgroups of patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia who had high cumulative anticholinergic burden and specific patterns of anticholinergic use. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in a not-for-profit, integrated delivery system. Participants included community-dwelling adults aged 65 years and older (n = 13,627) with MCI or dementia and at least two other chronic diseases. We calculated the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) score for each participant from pharmacy and electronic health record (EHR) data. Among individuals with a mean 12-month ACB score ≥ 2, we used agglomerative hierarchical clustering to identify groups or clusters of individuals with similar anticholinergic prescription patterns. RESULTS: Twenty-four percent (3257 participants) had high anticholinergic burden, defined as an ACB score ≥ 2. Clinically meaningful clusters based upon anchoring medications or drug classes included a cluster of cardiovascular medications (n = 1497; 46%); two clusters of antidepressant medications (n = 633; 20%); and a cluster based on use of bladder antimuscarinics (n = 431; 13%). Several clusters comprised multiple central nervous system (CNS)-active drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular and CNS-active medications comprise a substantial portion of anticholinergic burden in people with cognitive impairment and multiple chronic conditions. Antidepressants were highly prevalent. Clinical profiles elucidated by these clusters of anticholinergic medications can inform targeted approaches to care.

Predicting Hypertension Among Children With Incident Elevated Blood Pressure.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a model to predict hypertension risk among children with incident elevated blood pressure (BP); to test the external validity of the model. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 3 organizations: Kaiser Permanente Colorado was the model derivation site; HealthPartners of Minnesota and Kaiser Permanente Northern California served as external validation sites. During study years 2006 through 2012, all children aged 3 through 17 years with incident elevated BP in an outpatient setting were identified. The predictor variables were demographic and clinical characteristics collected during routine care. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to predict subsequent hypertension, and diagnostic statistics were used to assess model performance. RESULTS: Among 5598 subjects at the derivation site with incident elevated BP, 160 (2.9%) developed hypertension during the study period. Eight characteristics were used to predict hypertension risk: age, sex, race, BP preceding incident elevated BP, body mass index percentile, systolic BP percentile, diastolic BP percentile, and clinical setting of the incident elevated BP. At the derivation site, the model discriminated well between those at higher versus lower risk of hypertension (c-statistic = 0.77). At external validation sites, the observed risk of hypertension was higher than the predicted risk, and the model showed poor discrimination (c-statistic ranged from 0.64 to 0.67). CONCLUSIONS: Among children with incident elevated BP, a risk model demonstrated good internal validity with respect to predicting subsequent hypertension. However, the risk model did not perform well at 2 external validation sites, which might limit transportability to other settings.

Age and sex differences in long-term outcomes following implantable cardioverter-defibrillator placement in contemporary clinical practice: findings from the Cardiovascular Research Network.

BACKGROUND: Patient sex and age may influence rates of death after receiving an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator for primary prevention. Differences in outcomes other than mortality and whether these differences vary by heart failure symptoms, etiology, and left ventricular ejection fraction are not well characterized. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 2954 patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤0.35 undergoing first-time implantable cardioverter-defibrillator for primary prevention within the Cardiovascular Research Network; 769 patients (26%) were women, and 2827 (62%) were aged >65 years. In a median follow-up of 2.4 years, outcome rates per 1000 patient-years were 109 for death, 438 for hospitalization, and 111 for heart failure hospitalizations. Procedure-related complications occurred in 8.36%. In multivariable models, women had significantly lower risks of death (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.80) and heart failure hospitalization (hazard ratio 0.82, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.98) and higher risks for complications (hazard ratio 1.38, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.90) than men; patients aged >65 years had higher risks of death (hazard ratio 1.55, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.86) and heart failure hospitalization (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.49) than younger patients. Age and sex differences were generally consistent in strata according to symptoms, etiology, and severity of left ventricular systolic dysfunction, except the higher risk of complications in women, which differed by New York Heart Association classification (P=0.03 for sex-New York Heart Association interaction), and the risk of heart failure hospitalization in older patients, which differed by etiology of heart failure (P=0.05 for age-etiology interaction). CONCLUSIONS: The burden of adverse outcomes after receipt of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator for primary prevention is substantial and varies according to patient age and sex. These differences in outcome generally do not vary according to baseline heart failure characteristics.

Competing risks of cancer mortality and cardiovascular events in individuals with multimorbidity.

BACKGROUND: Cancer patients with cardiovascular and other comorbidities are at concurrent risk of multiple adverse outcomes. However, most treatment decisions are guided by evidence from single-outcome models, which may be misleading for multimorbid patients. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the interacting effects of cancer, cardiovascular, and other morbidity burdens on the competing outcomes of cancer mortality, serious cardiovascular events, and other-cause mortality. DESIGN: We analyzed a cohort of 6,500 adults with initial cancer diagnosis between 2001 and 2008, SEER 5-year survival ≥26%, and a range of cardiovascular risk factors. We estimated the cumulative incidence of cancer mortality, a serious cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, or cardiovascular mortality), and other-cause mortality over 5 years, and identified factors associated with the competing risks of each outcome using cause-specific Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Following cancer diagnosis, there were 996 (15.3%) cancer deaths, 328 (5.1%) serious cardiovascular events, and 542 (8.3%) deaths from other causes. In all, 4,634 (71.3%) cohort members had none of these outcomes. Although cancer prognosis had the greatest effect, cardiovascular and other morbidity also independently increased the hazard of each outcome. The effect of cancer prognosis on outcome was greatest in year 1, and the effect of other morbidity was greater in individuals with better cancer prognoses. CONCLUSION: In multimorbid oncology populations, comorbidities interact to affect the competing risk of different outcomes. Quantifying these risks may provide persons with cancer plus cardiovascular and other comorbidities more accurate information for shared decision-making than risks calculated from single-outcome models. Journal of Comorbidity 2014;4:29-36.

Chronic use of opioid medications before and after bariatric surgery.

IMPORTANCE: Obesity is associated with chronic noncancer pain. It is not known if opioid use for chronic pain in obese individuals undergoing bariatric surgery is reduced. OBJECTIVES: To determine opioid use following bariatric surgery in patients using opioids chronically for pain control prior to their surgery and to determine the effect of preoperative depression, chronic pain, or postoperative changes in body mass index (BMI) on changes in postoperative chronic opioid use. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective cohort study in a distributed health network (10 demographically and geographically varied US health care systems) of 11,719 individuals aged 21 years and older, who had undergone bariatric surgery between 2005 and 2009, and were assessed 1 year before and after surgery, with latest follow-up by December 31, 2010. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Opioid use, measured as morphine equivalents 1 year before and 1 year after surgery, excluding the first 30 postoperative days. Chronic opioid use is defined as 10 or more opioid dispensings over 90 or more days or as dispensings of at least a 120-day supply of opioids during the year prior to surgery. RESULTS: Before surgery, 8% (95% CI, 7%-8%; n = 933) of bariatric patients were chronic opioid users. Of these individuals, 77% (95% CI, 75%-80%; n = 723) continued chronic opioid use in the year following surgery. Mean daily morphine equivalents for the 933 bariatric patients who were chronic opioid users before surgery were 45.0 mg (95% CI, 40.0-50.1) preoperatively and 51.9 mg (95% CI, 46.0-57.8) postoperatively (P < .001). For this group with chronic opiate use prior to surgery, change in morphine equivalents before vs after surgery did not differ between individuals with loss of more than 50% excess BMI vs those with 50% or less (>50% BMI loss: adjusted incidence rate ratio [adjusted IRR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07-1.28] vs ≤50% BMI loss [adjusted IRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.93-1.14] model interaction, P = .06). In other subgroup analyses of preoperative chronic opioid users, changes in morphine equivalents before vs after surgery did not differ between those with or without preoperative diagnosis of depression or chronic pain (depression only [n = 75; IRR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.90-1.30]; chronic pain only [n = 440; IRR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.08-1.27]; both depression and chronic pain [n = 226; IRR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.96-1.28]; neither depression nor chronic pain [n = 192; IRR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.98-1.51); and P values for model interactions when compared with neither were P = .42 for depression, P = .76 for pain, and P = .48 for both. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort of patients who underwent bariatric surgery, 77% of patients who were chronic opioid users before surgery continued chronic opioid use in the year following surgery, and the amount of chronic opioid use was greater postoperatively than preoperatively. These findings suggest the need for better pain management in these patients following surgery.

Patterns of care and persistence after incident elevated blood pressure.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Screening for hypertension in children occurs during routine care. When blood pressure (BP) is elevated in the hypertensive range, a repeat measurement within 1 to 2 weeks is recommended. The objective was to assess patterns of care after an incident elevated BP, including timing of repeat BP measurement and likelihood of persistently elevated BP. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted in 3 health care organizations. All children aged 3 through 17 years with an incident elevated BP at an outpatient visit during 2007 through 2010 were identified. Within this group, we assessed the proportion who had a repeat BP measured within 1 month of their incident elevated BP and the proportion who subsequently met the definition of hypertension. Multivariate analyses were used to identify factors associated with follow-up BP within 1 month of initial elevated BP. RESULTS: Among 72,625 children and adolescents in the population, 6108 (8.4%) had an incident elevated BP during the study period. Among 6108 with an incident elevated BP, 20.9% had a repeat BP measured within 1 month. In multivariate analyses, having a follow-up BP within 1 month was not significantly more likely among individuals with obesity or stage 2 systolic elevation. Among 6108 individuals with an incident elevated BP, 84 (1.4%) had a second and third consecutive elevated BP within 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Whereas >8% of children and adolescents had an incident elevated BP, the great majority of BPs were not repeated within 1 month. However, relatively few individuals subsequently met the definition of hypertension.

Statin prescribing patterns in a cohort of cancer patients with poor prognosis.

BACKGROUND: There are no evidence-based recommendations for statin continuation or discontinuation near the end of life. However, some expert opinion recommends continuing statins prescribed for secondary versus primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to explore statin prescribing patterns in a longitudinal cohort of individuals with life-limiting illness, and to evaluate differences in these patterns based on secondary versus primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. DESIGN AND SETTING: This study was a retrospective cohort analysis of 539 persons in an integrated, not-for-profit health maintenance organization (HMO) setting who were receiving statins at diagnosis of a cancer with 0% to 25% predicted 5-year survival. Of the cohort patients, 343 were taking statins for secondary prevention and 196 for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Measurements included number and timing of statin refills between diagnosis and date of death, disenrollment, or the end of the observation period. RESULTS: Four hundred and ninety-six cohort members died within the observation period. Fifty-eight percent of the secondary prevention and 62% of the primary prevention group had at least one statin refill after diagnosis. There were no significant differences between groups for number of days between diagnosis and last refill, or between last refill and death. Two deaths were attributable to cardiovascular causes in each group. CONCLUSIONS: Our retrospective cohort analysis of persons with incident poor-prognosis cancer describes diminished, but persistent statin refills after diagnosis. Neither timing of statin discontinuation nor cardiovascular mortality differed by prescribing indication. There may be an opportunity to reevaluate medication burden in persons taking statins for primary prevention, and it is unclear whether continuing statins prescribed for secondary prevention affects cardiovascular outcomes.